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November 30, 2016

Cost estimates for Income-Driven Repayment plans are unreliable

For the fiscal year 2017 budget, the Department of Education (ED) estimated that Income-Driven Repayment (IDR) plans will cost $74 billion. Actual costs will depend on how many borrowers participate in IDR plans and how much (or how little) those borrowers earn over time. After reviewing how ED produces its cost estimates, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) criticized aspects of ED’s methodology and concluded that ED’s cost estimates are not reliable.  GAO found that ED’s methods may both over- and under-state actual…